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Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?

TitleEconomic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsTalving, Liisa
Conference Name3rd European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research
KeywordsEconomic crisis, Economic voting, Europe, incumbent support
Abstract

During the global financial and economic crisis in 2007-2009, most European countries faced economic meltdown and growing unemployment. This would lead us to expect a strong economic effect on vote choice. Yet, recent academic work suggests that diminishing clarity of responsibility makes it difficult for voters to attribute blame for economic outcomes, consequently leading to less punishment. Has the economic vote then increased or decreased? Analyzing European Election Studies data from 40 surveys this paper finds support for neither: the economic vote appears remarkably stable over the years. This is not to conclude, however, that the crisis did not matter. The popular discontent rocketed and incumbents were certainly punished. Yet, the strength of the statistical relationship between political support and economic assessments remained the same.

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TEV conf paper 2014_Talving.pdf720.58 KB